Nigeria’s GDP may decline by $139bn in 2030 –World Bank

A new World Bank report estimates that the collapse of ecosystem services provided by nature including wild pollination, food from marine fisheries and timber from forests could result in Nigeria’s GDP declining by $139bn in 2030.

The report titled ‘The economic case for nature’ underscored the strong reliance of economies on nature, particularly in low income countries.

The report highlighted that Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia would suffer the most relative contraction of real GDP due to a collapse of ecosystem services by 2030, 9.7 per cent annually and 6.5 per cent respectively.

Nigeria which is regarded as a lower-middle income economy by the World Bank is expected to be among the worst-hit countries.

The report reads, “In absolute terms, the greatest losses of GDP are expected in middle-income countries.

“The worst affected country is China, which sees its GDP drop by $943bn in 2030, followed by India (-$193bn), Brazil (-$150bn), Indonesia (-$144bn) and Nigeria (-$139bn).

“The projected loss in GDP signifies a permanent reduction of the productive potential of the economy, with potentially long-lasting effects on incomes and employment.

The report also disclosed that Nigeria’s fisheries output is projected to contract by 21 per cent or $4.6bn for the same time period.

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Reacting to the report, World Bank Group President, David Malpass, said, “Nature-smart policies and reforms including agricultural subsidy reform and investments in agricultural innovation enhance biodiversity and economic outcomes.

“As countries seek to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s important that economic development improves outcomes for nature.”

World Bank Lead Environmental Economist and co-author of the report, Giovanni Ruta, said, “It is a combination of policies that shows the greatest win-win for both biodiversity and for economies.”

Adding investment in research and development to the policy mix was particularly important and beneficial to developing countries, he added.